RSSOddly Pontifical
It seems that Pope John Paul II's time is short here in this world, and I am truly saddened by his failing health. The Pope's remarkable presence and his unparalleled talents as both a spiritual and political leader have made a lasting impact on both the Catholic Church and the world as a whole.
And who will take his place as High Pontiff? No one knows for sure, but there appear to be at least three major forces at work. First, bear in mind that Pope John Paul II personally appointed 115 out of the 120 voting members of the College of Cardinals, ensuring that his successor will have a strong conservative bent. Second, there has been a definite shift in the Church's demographics: 65% of the world's Catholics live in Africa. How the Vatican chooses to interpret this fact could influence the vote. If they want to shore up their influence at home, they could favor a European Pope, whereas a Pope from somewhere in the third world might enhance their position among their new power base. A third factor is the talk of the need for a transitional Pope. That would mean electing an older cardinal to take over for some time before a younger and more permanent candidate can be installed.
With all of this in mind, here are the odds on some of the leading papabili:
| Cardinal | Age | Nationality | The Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dionigi Tettamanzi | 72 | Italian | 5/2 |
| Francis Arinze | 72 | Nigerian | 11/4 |
| Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga | 62 | Honduran | 4/1 |
| Joseph Ratzinger | 78 | German | 7/1 |
| Jaime Lucas Ortega y Alamino | 63 | Cuban | 15/2 |
| Ennio Antonelli | 66 | Italian | 8/1 |
| Claudio Hummes | 69 | Brazilian | 12/1 |
| Christoph Schoenborn | 58 | Austrian | 12/1 |
| Godfried Daneels | 70 | Belgian | 20/1 |
